[American Trajectories] - Beyond Trump: The Midterms, a Barometer of a Changing Democracy

Introduction

The midterms are taking place amid a climate of cultural warfare, high social tensions, and economic discontent-partly driven by rising fuel prices but primarily rooted in perceptions of inequality, which even a very real rise in the standard of living cannot erase. Pessimism among Americans is gaining ground: while, in an unprecedented move, some Democratic candidates are building their platforms solely on redistributive proposals rather than on wealth creation, the Republican side is obsessed with America’s lost greatness. Amid polarization and radicalism, the lines of division are being redrawn, and strong economic growth will be all the less sufficient to ensure the success of the MAGA agenda, given that the economic situation could reverse at any moment.

Several scenarios are emerging, and each involves several possible sub-dynamics.

The first is a Republican defeat in the midterms of 2026. It involves four sub-scenarios:

• Divisions within the Democratic camp and persistent discord;
• Presidential paralysis, Republican defections, and impeachment;
• A counteroffensive by Donald Trump;
• The Republican Party being taken over by factions dissociated from the MAGA camp.

The second scenario is a Republican victory in the Senate, which is likely to exacerbate tensions within the Republican camp. Not only will the Trump administration have to take responsibility for its promises-a short war in the Middle East, controlling inflation, capping interest rates-but the question of Trump’s succession will become central. The midterm election results will not dispel the uncertainties hanging over 2028 and beyond.

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