Ahead of the Presidential Election, the Country Straddles Polarization and Shock

An Unprecedented Escalation of Violence

The violence of October 17 and 18 has left the country in a state of shock. While we must not overlook the power of the social movement - which brought together between 550,000 (according to authorities) and 800,000 (according to unions) protesters, more than during the first Yellow Vests demonstrations despite a much lower level of organization - it is the shock of the unprecedented crossing of certain symbolic and moral boundaries that stands out most immediately. The intense anger of high school students and the citizens they have rallied could, in some respects, be reminiscent of the Yellow Vests crisis, but the comparison is limited because it fails to account for two developments that were unprecedented in 2018 and are highly alarming for the nation’s social climate: first the images of attempted looting in private buildings that were broadcast in the media sent a real shockwave through public opinion; second, calls for self-defense on social media by exasperated business owners.

Such a level of violence highlights a structural escalation, but it is important to distinguish between high school students and their supporters, on the one hand, and "black blocs" and looters, on the other. The latter two groups have partly overshadowed the demands of the former, but paradoxically, the extreme violence also underscores the depth of social unrest.

With six months to go before the presidential election, polarization has reached unprecedented levels. The radical left and the extreme right account for nearly 52% of the vote, and as much as 77% among young people. The shock is too profound and the images too striking for the events of October 17-18 not to influence voters’ choices, as they feel - perhaps rightly so - that the state has lost control over its most essential sovereign function: ensuring peace and security. Emmanuel Macron’s final days in office, after a decade at the Élysée, are particularly difficult - a euphemism to say the least. Speaking to an audience of approximately 16.7 million television viewers on Sunday evening, the head of state was fulfilling his role, but aside from asserting that public safety would be maintained, he was unable to outline any path forward to address the protesters’ demands - other than deferring to the prime minister and intermediary bodies, and announcing consultations that are not only long overdue but also seem woefully insufficient. The government, swamped, gives the impression that it is no longer capable of managing the situation.

The Winners and Losers of a Weekend of Violence

Analysts must exercise caution when drawing lessons from such heated events, and the losers stand out more clearly than the winners in this episode. First and foremost, it is the executive branch that has suffered the greatest losses in terms political capital; the President of the Republic, his Prime Minister, the entire government, and in particular Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez - whose resignation was rejected by the President - are bearing the brunt of public criticism for their handling of the crisis.

On the left, the conclusions are less straightforward. Raphaël Glucksmann has largely been absent from the scene, and the gap is widening within the left-wing electorate between young people and the rest of the electorate. Jean-Luc Mélenchon leads in voting intentions among 43% of 18- to 24-year-olds, while only 6% of that age group would actually vote for the leader of Place publique. LFI has played its part to the fullest in mobilizing young people. We cannot fault them for this, and failing to do so would have been a tactical mistake; but it is one thing to support a social movement, and quite another to add fuel to the fire. The LFI mayor of Saint-Denis, Bally Bagayoko, stated on September 29, 2026, that "violence [could] be legitimate in certain circumstances," while asserting that avoiding it was always preferable. The entire political system seems to be severely dysfunctional.

On the right, all political forces whose main message centers on security are benefiting from the distressing images broadcast on a loop by the media, beyond the sole National Rally, even though that party will reap the greatest benefits from the events. Marine Le Pen’s following public statement, delivered in a very polished, very presidential style two hours before the head of state took the podium, gave the impression that she was one step ahead of him, and if the election were held right now, the RN president would have every chance of being elected. More broadly, Marine Le Pen holds the advantage in at least three match points - though, of course, some of them end up in the net.

- Public finances. While a lack of economic credibility was one of her party’s main weaknesses, the state of public finances is now casting a shadow of discredit on the "traditional" parties. Given this, how can one accuse the RN of worsening the situation, and on what grounds can one attack its counter-budget?

- The question of Ukraine. The government is trying to explain to the country that the coffers are empty but, at the same time, is announcing new spending and maintaining its support for Ukraine. Marine Le Pen has announced that she would only continue support for Ukraine for six more months. This resonates: in 2026, only 39% of French people disapproved of supplying weapons to Ukraine, but that figure has undoubtedly risen. The question of the future of support for Ukraine is a huge unspoken issue in the campaign, a topic that has been sidelined but is likely more important than people realize.

- Professionalized campaign communications. Here again, Marine Le Pen has made significant progress. Her campaign kickoff speech in Hénin-Beaumont on September 13 allowed her to very cleverly link the theme of "national priority" to that of public housing.

Increasing uncertainties for the second round

With Marine Le Pen polling between 33 and 35 percent of the vote, the only unknown is who will take the second spot in the runoff, as the left-right divide is realigning around LFI and the RN.

In the center, the Attal/Philippe race is fraught with uncertainty. Gabriel Attal has failed to win over even the supporters of his own bloc, Renaissance, let alone the centrist bloc, where he has been unable to attract center-left voters. Édouard Philippe leads him by 8 to 10 points in the polls, but his momentum has stalled for the now.

On the left, several opinion polls show a real surge in support for R. Glucksmann since the primary (+4%), lifting him to 13%. Is this trend destined to fade? He is now neck-and-neck with É. Philippe (12%), and a head-to-head matchup with Marine Le Pen cannot be ruled out.

A Period of Erratic Communication

The violence that erupted on October 17-18 reveals the alarming state of an increasingly polarized society, just a few months before a crucial democratic election for the country and at a time when nearly half of the French people do not trust the integrity of the election results.

French political life has not produced a figure with the stature to champion a vision for the future capable of restoring the country’s social cohesion. A great politician is recognized, in part, by their ability to seize the right moment to address their fellow citizens. Marine Le Pen seems to be the only one who has succeeded in doing so, as she and Jean-Luc Mélenchon have dominated the media landscape, ruling out any prospect of calm, while neither Gabriel Attal nor Édouard Philippe have made their voices heard - perhaps neutralized by their rivalry, each fearing that taking a stand might be detrimental to them among a fluctuating electorate. Still, some candidates may emerge over the next six months of the campaign.

A Security Failure

At first glance, there are several shortcomings in the areas of intelligence and deployment decisions. Added to this technical crisis is the emergence of a political - some would say institutional - crisis, with the reaction of the Alliance Police Nationale union (the largest union of the National Police) on October 13. It announced its intention to file a complaint against the state for "endangering the lives of others," revealing a rare degree of mistrust between law enforcement and the government, at a time when the police are facing criticism and ongoing investigations regarding certain uses of force. These tensions are particularly notable given that the country cannot afford a second failure of the state on November 5, the date on which the Intersyndicale has called for new protests. In the meantime, the judicial process will likely shed more light on the profile of the rioters, their motives (are they opportunistic offenders or part of an insurrectionary movement primarily driven by political objectives?), and help identify the "Black Blocs" networks or to possibly assign responsibility for certain acts of interference. The presidential campaign has reached a turning point.

Interview by Hortense Miginiac
Copyright Matthieu RONDEL / AFP The Republique square, 18th of october 2026